In a flurry of diplomatic
activity by Russian leaders trying to find their place
in the emerging U.S.-led coalition against terrorism,
Moscow has focused largely on the volatile states of
Central Asia -- whose neighbor Afghanistan is the most
likely target of a U.S. military strike.
Despite Russia's stated
support for a joint anti-terrorist operation, Moscow is
apprehensive about hints from the region's former Soviet
republics that they are willing to let Washington use
their bases and airspace without seeking Russian
approval. Moscow fears that the region's direct
involvement in a U.S. military operation could both
undermine its already waning influence there and
destabilize the region, leading to conflagrations on
Russia's southern border.
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and
Turkmenistan -- impoverished nations ruled by
heavy-handed secular regimes -- have all faced the
threat of militant Islamic groups suspected of links
with the Taliban, which controls much of Afghanistan and
has been playing host to suspected terrorist Osama bin
Laden. And while the downfall of the Taliban regime
could defuse tensions by depriving local radicals of
their nearby support base, experts warn that a hasty and
short-sighted operation could plunge the region into
crisis and further radicalization.
The only country in the
region where Russia still maintains a military presence
is Tajikistan -- a pauperized nation of less than 6.5
million people emerging from a devastating five-year
civil war between a pro-Moscow secular government and an
Islamic opposition. The country is so weak that its
1,200-kilometer border with Afghanistan is guarded by
10,000 Russian troops, with 15,000 more scattered
throughout the country.
The border they guard is a
tough zone to patrol.
According to Reuters,
Tajikistan is the transit route for 65 percent to 85
percent of heroin smuggled out of Afghanistan, the
world's largest producer.
The border also serves as a
bulwark against thousands of Afghan refugees, some of
them armed, whom the Tajik government has refused to
accept. The refugees live in a no-man's land on the
islands of the Pyandzh River, which separates
Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Dushanbe, whose government
includes former Islamic opposition leaders, fears some
of the refugees might be affiliated with radical Islamic
groups and could bolster the warlords who still control
parts of the country.
Tajik President Emomali
Rakhmonov reiterated Thursday that his country would not
take in refugees should the United States launch strikes
against Afghanistan.
"We cannot allow the
penetration of a single refugee from Afghanistan into
Tajikistan because there could be emissaries of
different international terrorist organizations among
them," Rakhmonov told Reuters during an inspection of
the Tajik-Afghan border together with Russia's Security
Council chief, Vladimir Rushailo.
Tajikistan's other problem is
neighboring Uzbekistan, which does not conceal its
animosity toward its smaller eastern neighbor.
Uzbekistan, a country of 23 million, accuses Tajikistan
of housing training camps and allowing the free passage
of members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, or
IMU, the region's largest armed extremist
group.
The IMU is suspected of
having strong links with the Taliban, which allows it to
operate through bases in Afghanistan. The movement
staged an attack on Uzbek President Islam Karimov in
1999 and conducted a major raid in Uzbekistan's Ferghana
Valley in 2000.
The Uzbek government has
responded to the threat with repressions against all
practicing Moslems. In the last four years, hundreds of
mosques have been closed and thousands of devout Moslems
have been imprisoned. Many among them, according to
human rights groups, have been tortured.
But Uzbekistan's border with
Afghanistan is the shortest and best guarded of all --
its 137 kilometers are reportedly fortified by 20,000
troops, some of which are U.S.-trained.
Neighboring Turkmenistan is
in a far less enviable position: Its 744-kilometer
border with Afghanistan is virtually unguarded. Aware of
his weakness, the country's megalomaniac ruler,
Saparmurat Niyazov -- whose 40-meter gold-covered
rotating statue adorns the capital, Ashgabat -- has
opted for neutrality in dealing with the
Taliban.
Turkmenistan's Foreign
Ministry reiterated its stance Wednesday, saying it had
no plans to allow the United States and its allies to
use its territory or air space for retaliatory strikes
against Afghanistan.
The caution with which the
Central Asian countries have reacted to the possibility
of joining the U.S.-led military operation is justified,
and the risks of destabilization are real, according to
Martha Brill Olcott, a senior associate and Central Asia
expert with the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment.
"The war in Afghanistan has
the capacity to destabilize the region," Brill Olcott
said in a telephone interview from Washington on
Wednesday.
Experts agreed that Central
Asia could face two dangers in the event of a U.S.
attack: a wave of refugees and the fueling of radical
sentiment.
"For any of these states, a
new refugee burden is not a welcome gift," Brill Olcott
said. "They simply do not have the resources to deal
with it unassisted."
According to Alexander Golts,
a military correspondent for Itogi magazine, the flood
of refugees is "unavoidable" if Afghanistan is invaded,
so it should not deter the Central Asian nations or
Russia from participating in a military operation. "It
will happen whether we participate in the operation or
not," he said in a telephone interview. "The only
difference is that if we are partners, we could count on
some form of aid. And if we're not, we'll be left to
cope with it alone."
Perhaps a greater danger is
potential retaliation by the Taliban.
Days after Washington
threatened the Taliban with strikes, Kabul warned that
it would fight back. The only means at its disposal
other than terrorist attacks, observers say, are
measures to destabilize neighboring countries -- first
and foremost, Pakistan, followed by Central
Asia.
According to Rustam Shukurov,
an associate professor of history at Moscow State
University, the Taliban has had "very serious plans for
Central Asia."
"Ever since they came to
power, they've been supporting the Islamic movements in
those countries, financing them and helping them build
networks throughout Central Asia," he said in a
telephone interview Thursday. "It was obvious they were
planning serious operations there in the coming
years."
However, observers also
believe that an attack against the Taliban might
actually bring the region some stability, or at least
buy it some time to solve its internal problems.
An attack on Afghanistan
could deplete the Taliban's resources to such an extent
that the movement might find itself unable to help
anybody anymore, according to Mark Galeotti, a Russia
expert with the Jane's Intelligence group in
London.
"They are not that rich, they
will be busy fighting the U.S. and a civil war in their
own country, with the Northern Alliance. They might try
to pour some more arms to their affiliates in the
region, but not more than that," Galeotti
said.
As if confirming this, the
Indian government announced Thursday that some of the
Taliban forces that fought alongside rebels in the
province of Jammu and Kashmir have started withdrawing
to Afghanistan.
"The danger of the Taliban
destabilizing the region exists, but I find it a bit
exaggerated," Alexei Malashenko, an expert with the
Moscow Carnegie Center, said in a telephone interview
Wednesday.
"The Taliban is going to fall
eventually," Galeotti said. "It is fragmented and lacks
a real power base. And if it's going to collapse, it's
better for its neighbors to have it collapse under
American pressure. That would make the U.S. feel
responsible for the consequences and invest in the
region's recovery."
Carnegie's Brill Olcott
agreed.
"An invasion that has broad
international support and is accompanied by some sense
of responsibility for rebuilding Afghanistan ... might
not be destabilizing at all," she said.
But Professor Shukurov
cautioned that eliminating the Taliban -- "a black hole
that does not recognize any international rules of the
game" -- while a necessary step, is "just the first
one."
The future of the Central
Asian states is determined first and foremost at home,
Shukurov said, and there the prospects are grim. Both
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan -- countries with majority
Moslem populations -- are ruled by "virulently
anti-Moslem regimes" that could use the global fight
against terrorism as an excuse to step up repression at
home.
"These regimes with their
indiscriminate persecution of all Moslems are breeding
radicalism," Shukurov said.
Here, Shukurov believes, is
where Russia can help -- first by participating in
efforts to neutralize the Taliban, then by helping the
democratization of Central Asia.
But, thus far, there is
little sign of either and Russia's political and
military leadership appear to have conflicting ideas on
how to handle the situation.
Reuters cited a senior U.S.
State Department official as saying that Foreign
Minister Igor Ivanov, during his visit to Washington,
had made it clear that Russia would not stand in the way
of U.S. cooperation with former Soviet states in Central
Asia.
Ivanov said Wednesday that
Russia and the United States should "give up the
stereotypes of the Cold War" and that in fighting
terrorism "no means can be excluded, including the use
of force."
At the same time, Defense
Minister Sergei Ivanov was adamant that there was no
"basis for even the hypothetical possibility" of a NATO
military presence in Central Asia.
Dushanbe and Tashkent have
been careful not to rile their northern neighbor.
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which is home to two air
bases that were used to launch attacks against
Afghanistan during the Soviet military campaign there,
initially said they would consider all means of
cooperation with the United States, including the use of
air bases. But a day later they back-pedaled, saying
they had not received any concrete requests from
Washington.
Washington has seemed
sensitive to Russia's touchiness in the region as well,
and has been conspicuously low-key in dealing with the
Central Asian regimes.
Jane's Galeotti said Russia's
military top brass was lobbying very hard against U.S.
use of air bases in Uzbekistan or Tajikistan.
"Their arguments were, among
others, that the U.S. planes might spy on Russian
military facilities," he said.
"[Russia's] help will most
likely be limited to intelligence," Galeotti said.
"Russia can offer the help of officers who fought in
Afghanistan and remember the terrain there. It's easy,
it can make a difference and it costs nothing."
Russian Chief of General
Staff Anatoly Kvashnin has been touring the region,
making sure none of the countries extends too helping a
hand to Washington.
"Russia has not considered
and is not planning to consider participation in a
military operation against Afghanistan," Kvashnin told
reporters during his visit to Tajikistan on Wednesday.
As far the "territorial integrity" of the Central Asian
nations, he said, "there are relevant bilateral and
other obligations."
"The problem is, Russian
policy in the region is not conducted by politicians,
but by military people," Shukurov said. "And they
unfortunately lack vision: They still see America as the
main enemy and the repressive governments as their main
allies."
|