The border between Lebanon and Israel could witness an unexpected calm as an ironic consequence of the catastrophic attacks in the United States, security sources said Tuesday.
The prospect of Israel using the popular revulsion at the devastating air assaults on New York and Washington to cover harsh retaliation may force Hizbullah to postpone any plans it might have had for an imminent military strike against Israeli targets.
“Hizbullah will have to be very careful from now on,” said a senior security source. “The Israelis will have a free hand for the next five or six months if anything happens along the border.”
Some observers believe that Israel has already decided on a tougher approach to the Palestinian intifada. Israeli tanks and troops have entered the West Bank and surrounded the town of Jenin ­ described as a “hornet’s nest” of “terrorist activity” by Israel’s Foreign Ministry. Twelve Palestinians have been killed and 70 wounded in incursions inside the town in the past two days.
Zeev Schiff, the veteran military correspondent of Israel’s Haaretz daily, was one of many commentators who said that the airliner suicide attacks in the US would grant Israel greater military leeway.
“It will now be easier for Israel to take action against contingents of suicide bombers and their bases inside areas under the control of the Palestinian Authority,” Schiff wrote. “If Israel’s current operation in Jenin goes on for much longer, it is doubtful that we will hear the old criticism against such operations.”
Although Schiff was writing in the context of the intifada, the rationale applies equally to any perceived threat against Israel, including Hizbullah along the Jewish state’s northern border.
UNIFIL was placed on alert Tuesday as tension remained high throughout the South.
With Israel having closed its borders, UNIFIL commander Major General Lalit Mohan Tewari had to personally intervene with the Israeli authorities to ensure that the civilian UN staff were able to cross into Lebanon and report for work at UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura.
Hizbullah has refused to make any comment on the airliner attacks in the United States. A scheduled rally in the Hizbullah stronghold of Haret Hreik during which Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was expected to speak was canceled at the last minute. Hizbullah gave no reason for the cancellation.
The Lebanon-Israel border had been more tense than usual over the past three weeks, with the Israeli Army claiming it had received intelligence that Hizbullah planned a variety of possible attacks against Israeli targets.
The warnings, whether real or contrived, nonetheless came at a time when Hizbullah was expected to stage another of its sporadic attacks in the Shebaa Farms. The last assault was on June 29, over two months ago. So far this year, Hizbullah has averaged an attack roughly every two months.
The next Hizbullah operation could prove decisive. Israel has established a precedent of destroying Syrian military targets in retaliation for Hizbullah’s attacks. Following the air strike on a Syrian radar base in the Bekaa, two days after a missile attack on two Israeli outposts, Hizbullah hit back, pounding six Israeli positions in the occupied Shebaa Farms.
Judging from the comments aired in the Israeli press Tuesday, Israel would surely take the gloves off if Hizbullah were to launch another attack in the Shebaa Farms just now.
“The Bush administration will set new standards for responses to terrorist actions, and will not display any ‘balanced attitude’ to Israeli responses in the future,” Shimon Shiffer wrote in Yediot Ahronot. “In the foreseeable future, the alliance between Israel and the US will grow stronger, and a large part of its proposal to fight international-Muslim terrorism will get more than an attentive ear.”
Although Hizbullah could disrupt life in northern Israel with its antiquated Katyushas, Israel could devastate any part of Lebanon ­ or Syria for that matter ­ that it chose to hit.
Even if Hizbullah maintains a low profile, Israel may feel there will never be a better opportunity to attack Hizbullah’s alleged missile infrastructure in the South. Israeli officials have repeatedly claimed in the past few months that Hizbullah has some 8,000 Katyusha rockets in its armory, with many of them deployed along the border. Long-range Iranian Fajr rockets capable of hitting the coastal town of Haifa, 40 kilometers south of the border, are also said to be in Hizbullah’s possession.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote in Maariv that the “forces of terror” are dancing on the “rooftops of Gaza and Damascus, Beirut and Baghdad.”
“The United States must lead the coalition of freedom against them … it must crush the empire of terror and dismantle its toxic weaponry,” he wrote. “Israel must cooperate in this effort by eliminating the forces of evil on our doorstep.”