EW DELHI: With a US-led military strike against Afghanistan's ruling militia Taliban now almost certain, Indian defence experts feel that it was likely that the US will use the Northern Alliance led by Burhanuddin Rabbani as ground troops against the Taliban, instead of using the US infantry.


TALIBAN MILITARY INSTALLATIONS: Times News Network learnt from leading defence analysts that the US was likely to use both its Air Force and missiles against the Taliban. "It is likely that the US forces may target the military installations of Taliban and destroy their defence infrastructure, including ammunition dumps," said K Subramanyam, a leading defence expert.

ESCAPE ROUTES: It was also likely that the US forces would try to destroy all land routes leading to areas where the fugitive terrorist Osama Bin Laden is holed up and isolate him from this forces. "The idea is to cut off his escape routes," experts added.

THE PAKISTAN CARD: But, before this happens, the US is expected to wean away Pakistan from the Islamic fundamentalists in Afghanistan. According to defence experts in New Delhi, Pakistan is going to be an extremely important pawn in US hands. Given the fact that Taliban gets its oil, food and financial support from Pakistan, the US is expected to put in immense diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to severe its links with the Taliban.

"Once Taliban is isolated, it will be relatively easy for the US to apply pressure on that government and arrange for the extradition of Bin Laden," experts added.

GROUND TROOPS: Military experts are of the opinion that once the US forces are able to destroy the defence infrastructure of Taliban and cut off the escape routes of Laden, the Northern Alliance would be brought in to fight the ground war. "It is possible that the US intelligence unit is currently in talks with the Northern Alliance for an attack against the Taliban", sources in the defence ministry added.

"Despite the seething anger among the US citizens and the law-makers, US may not be willing to lose members of its armed forces in Afghanistan -- which would be inevitable if the US does decide to land its infantry divisions there," said another expert.

"It's a fact that Vietnam happened nearly 30 years ago. But, it is unlikely that the American public would have forgotten all about the loss of lives in that country. Therefore, the US is unlikely to go in for a full-scale ground war in Afghanistan as in the case of the Gulf War and the war in Kosovo," Subramanyam said.

AFGHAN OPPOSITION: Defence analysts say the US would like to play on the anti-Taliban sentiment of the Northern Alliance. The Alliance, unlike the Taliban which is known for its fanatic Islamic beliefs, is much more tolerant.

They say the Northern Alliance is far from being defeated even after the reported death of Tajik Commander Ahmad Shah Masood. "In fact, the non-Pashtun forces under the ousted ethnic Tajik President Burhanuddin Rabbani and Uzbek general Abdul Rashid Dostum are well-equipped to take on the Taliban, especially after an aerial attack by the US," defence ministry sources said.

N-WEAPONS: Indian defence experts also felt that it was extremely unlikely that the US would use a nuclear bomb against the Afghan terrorists. "Usage of incendiary bombs like the Napalm bomb also seems unlikely as the US itself had signed a treaty against their use," Subramanyam added.

Napalm bombs suck out oxygen from the air. The victims -- even when not being in the immediate proximity of the explosion -- die of asphyxiation. In theory, Napalm bombs could turn out to be handy for US forces as Bin Laden and his followers are known to be living mostly in underground bunkers, where even high-tech missiles like the Cruise missile are unable to cause any major damage.

Subramanyam said the US was likely to launch its military operations from its Fifth fleet stationed in the Persian Gulf. In the event of a large-scale army operation, the US can also draw in forces from its stations in the Middle-East, he added.


ON THE WEB
Map of Afghanistan

Who is Osama Bin Laden

The World Factbook 2000: Afghanistan

The Revolutionary Association of the Women of Afghanistan