The West has lost Husni Mubarak. Whether it has lost Egypt is the question that remains to be answered. Early fears expressed in Washington, and more strongly in Israel, that the country will swing into Iran’s orbit are at the very least premature - and in my view unfounded. But what seems certain is that the Middle East has entered a new era - one whose contours we can only dimly discern.
To precipitate the fall of a dictator is not in itself a revolution, even if that word is being freely bandied around at the moment. What the protestors in Egypt have achieved, which is remarkable enough, is a revolution-in-the-making. Whether it will blossom into a true revolution depends in part on the protestors themselves, and in part on the country’s new rulers, the military. Broadly speaking, one can envisage three possible scenarios for Egypt in the course of 2011:
Scenarios One and Two would pose risks the military would regard as unacceptable. Scenario One would lead to outright civilian domination of the scene, which military officers would see as a potential threat to their entrenched position (with its perks and privileges) - and which, in their eyes, might open the door to an eventual takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. Scenario Two, on the other hand, would ensure military domination, but at the price of the certain revival of popular protest. Having tasted freedom in Tahrir Square, Egyptians will not willingly give it up.
Scenario Three - the most likely outcome - would be a messy compromise, but a compromise that might satisfy the protestors, the military - and the West. It would involve a transition managed by the military with the express purpose of producing an outcome the generals would regard as acceptable. Rather as in Turkey, the military would be the ultimate guardian of order and stability - and the last bulwark against an Islamist ascendancy.
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