Turkey has suddenly become a major player on the Middle East stage, offering its services as a mediator in a number of key conflicts, increasing its diplomatic and economic clout in the region, and, in the process, creating a degree of alarm in Israel and in at least some quarters of Washington.
This new foreign-policy activism is the brainchild of Ahmet Davutoglu, who has recently risen from being a close adviser to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to being his tirelessly peripatetic foreign minister. In the eyes of his admirers, Mr Davutoglu is a kind of Turkish Kissinger; in the eyes of his critics, he is an Islamist pulling Turkey away from its traditional pro-western orientation. A former academic, Mr Davutoglu is the architect of a new strategic vision according to which Turkey – by virtue of its geography, culture and history – has no choice but to look East as well as West, cultivating close ties with Iran as well as the United States, and with Hamas as well as Israel.
It is an extraordinary balancing-act, with obvious rewards and evident risks.
There can be no denying that Turkey is uniquely placed to mediate on two fronts that are of great importance both to the region and to Washington. The first, under way for some time, is a so far fruitless effort to encourage Israel and Syria to enter into peace talks. Now that the Obama administration has appointed a new ambassador to Damascus – thereby ending the cold war between the two countries – it is clear the Americans have an obvious interest in trying to revive the Israeli-Syrian peace process and, at the same time, wean Syria away from its regional ally Iran.
The second mediation effort is focused on finding a formula to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. Eyebrows were raised when Prime Minister Erdogan, on a visit to Tehran, ingratiated himself with the controversial figure of President Ahmadi-Nejad. But the need for a diplomatic formula for the Iran problem is urgent – and if Turkey can help find one, it will earn the considerable gratitude of its American ally, for whom there is no good option on Iran; only a choice between bad and worse.
But there may be a price to pay for this new high-profile activism. For one thing, Turkey cannot indefinitely be all things to all men. If, for example, diplomacy with Iran fails, the Turks will be pressed to back a new round of international sanctions against the Islamic Republic. For another, this diplomatic high-wire act comes at a time of acute crisis between Mr Erdogan’s governing AKP (a party with Islamist roots) and the staunchly secular Turkish military. The recent arrest and indictment of a string of military officers, both serving and retired, for alleged involvement in a plot to overthrow the government, has plunged the crisis into an acutely polarising crisis. While the AKP has won two convincing election victories since 2002, the military remains – according to every opinion poll – the country’s most trusted institution and the guardian of the secular system installed after the First World War by the country’s revered founding father, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The sight of Mr Erdogan hobnobbing with Mr Ahmadi-Nejad will not have endeared him to the Turkish generals.
On the Arab street, Turkey’s new role is being welcomed. But keeping his balance on the high-wire may prove a task even Mr Davutoglu is unable to master.
JIME Center.All rights reserved.