The Saudi crown prince and defence minister, Prince Sultan, is reported to be terminally ill with cancer. Although such reports are notoriously hard to confirm, there are tell-tale signs which give them credibility: Sultan has been discharged from a New York hospital where he stayed for some time receiving radiation treatment, and from there went to Morocco with two of his brothers, Nayef and Salman – among the most senior princes in the House of Saud. Their presence suggests the illness is grave, and gives the three men the opportunity to discuss its implications.
Since King Abdullah is thought to be in his mid-eighties, it is possible that the next crown prince could become king in the relatively near future. Next in line, after Sultan, is Prince Nayef, who is in his mid-seventies. But to appoint Nayef, the long-serving minister of the interior, would be unpopular and divisive. His role as custodian of law and order, in which he has not hesitated to stamp out dissent, has made him immensely powerful but has scarcely endeared him to the bulk of the population. Moreover he is said to be suffering from a severe form of the bone disease, osteoporosis.
Nayef’s ascent to the throne – if it happened – would not go down well with ordinary Saudis or with the kingdom’s Western allies. Among other things, his hostility to reform is well-known. Since coming to the throne in 2005, Abdullah has sought to embark on a cautious programme of political, economic and social reform. Although supported by a broad swathe of Saudi society, these efforts have been opposed – and on several occasions blocked – by an alliance of conservatives led by Nayef.
If Nayef were to become crown prince, therefore, this would heat up tensions between the anti-reform princes (led by Nayef’s so-called Sudairi faction) and a pro-reform group (led by King Abdullah and Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal). Nayef’s appointment would also cause misgivings among Western policy-makers anxious to see the pace of reform maintained, if not quickened.
More likely is that his brother Salman, governor of Riyadh, would get the job. The choice of Salman would be likely to satisfy Nayef and the Sudairi faction, to whom he is close; the reformists, who would on the whole consider him an acceptable compromise; and Washington, where he is well regarded. Salman is in his early seventies, still relatively young by princely standards, and said to be in good health.
In any event, Sultan’s death will test the new mechanism for deciding the succession put in place by King Abdullah – in essence, a committee of the great and the good which is supposed to choose a new king according to designated rules, and thereby avoid disputes. It remains to be seen whether, in practice, the new procedures are followed or the most senior princes ignore them and, in time-honoured fashion, reach their own decisions behind closed doors.
A succession crisis in Saudi Arabia – and the possibility of one in Egypt, where an ageing Husni Mubarak has been in power for almost three decades – will present the new Obama administration with additional headaches in the Middle East, at a time when the violence and loss of life in Gaza are highlighting the region’s dangerous volatility.
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