The Iraq war has already shaken the internal balance of power in Iraq, the regional balance of power in the Middle East – and affected (adversely) the battle for hearts and minds in the global ‘war on terror’.
To judge from the campaign speeches, the successful candidate will review US policy on all these fronts. There is likely to be a new push for Middle East peace, but this will be hostage to conditions on the ground – the weakness of Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, the possibility that Likud under Binyamin Netanyahu may win power in Israel, the volatile situation in Lebanon and (more surprisingly) in Syria.
There will be an attempt to formulate a coherent policy towards Iran (something which eluded the Bush administration). But the chances of a diplomatic breakthrough remain slim, and the military option (should Mr McCain become president) remains deeply unattractive.
The new president will send more troops to Afghanistan and struggle to bolster Pakistan – the two countries which now form the most crucial and most dangerous front in the ‘war on terror’. There is already debate in Washington over whether the short-term success of the ‘surge’ in Iraq can be replicated, under very different conditions, in Afghanistan. But, as in Iraq, troops are not the answer. The essential task – of propping up two failing states which provide ideal terrain for Al-Qaida and the Taliban – may prove an impossible undertaking.
At the same time the new president may follow the urgings of worthy think-tanks and put more effort into winning the ‘war of ideas’. Among some Muslims, Al-Qaida has succeeded in discrediting itself through indiscriminate violence. But it cannot be counted on to continue doing so. Reports of the death of “Al-Qaida Central” are premature. If Iraq is becoming less fertile soil for Al-Qaida’s activities, Afghanistan and Pakistan (and perhaps India too) are becoming more so. Besides, the struggle is genuinely global; no one knows in which country or continent the next big attack may come.
There is a lot to do. But despite the thirst of American voters – and much of the world – for a new approach to foreign policy, it is likely that any change will be in body language rather than in substance. There will be talk of multilateralism and of a renewed will to work with European, Middle Eastern and Asian allies. This will be widely welcomed. But such is the Bush administration’s toxic legacy in the Greater Middle East that solving its intractable and interlocking problems may be beyond the next president’s powers.
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