Hamas just won’t lie down and die. The logic of US and Israeli policy since the Islamist movement seized control of Gaza last year has been to pile pressure on Hamas – through diplomatic isolation and economic blockade – while doing everything possible to boost its rival, the Fatah-led government in the West Bank. As a result – so it is hoped -- either the Hamas administration in Gaza will collapse of its own accord or the Palestinian people will see the light and get rid of it.
The only trouble with this policy is that it is not working. The sanctions are hurting the long-suffering people of Gaza but failing to dislodge Hamas. Moreover recent events have shown that Hamas still retains the power to act decisively on the regional stage, whereas a weak and divided Fatah is scarcely under the control of President Mahmoud Abbas.
By breaching the barrier wall between Gaza and Egypt on 23 January, Hamas gave the Egyptians, the Israelis, President Abbas, and the Bush administration an unpleasant surprise. What resulted was much more than a chaotic shopping spree, as tens of thousands of Gazans rushed across the frontier to stock up on supplies.
How far Hamas can exploit this situation in the longer run remains to be seen. After eleven days of chaos, Egypt eventually managed to seal the border – without making any concession to Hamas. But the problem is that the status quo remains unsatisfactory from everyone’s point of view – and, what’s worse, if Hamas’s demands are not met, it has the power to organise another break-out.
Israel’s security worries were given substance by the suicide attack in the southern town of Dimona on 4 February, in which an Israeli woman was killed. Competing claims of responsibility were issued by Hamas and by the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade, which is supposedly under the control of President Abbas and his Fatah faction. If as seems likely the attackers came from Hebron, in the West Bank, this underlines President Abbas’s inability to do what the Israelis are demanding and take charge of the disparate Palestinian security forces and militias.
There are various possible formulas for securing Gaza’s borders, but in the end the issue comes down to an unpalatable choice – to set up arrangements (particularly at Rafah) which Hamas has the power to undermine whenever it chooses, or to negotiate with Hamas, even though it still refuses to recognise Israel or renounce violence. This is the dilemma confronting the Egyptians (who have been talking to Hamas about Rafah but without agreement), for President Abbas (who will not talk to Hamas unless it accepts that its takeover of Gaza was illegal) – and ultimately for the Israelis and the Americans (who say they are implacably opposed to talking to a terrorist organisation).
What Hamas has done is to break the rules – and get away with it.
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