The Middle East in 2008

•   Iraq will remain the single biggest source of regional uncertainty and instability. As the British withdraw from the south, the power struggle between the Shi’ite factions there will intensify. It will be much harder for the Americans to make any significant (as opposed to symbolic) troop withdrawal. The Iraqi security forces will continue to harbour sectarian or ethnic loyalties. The Maliki government will remain weak and discredited, and political reconciliation will remain elusive. Sunni forces – armed by the US to fight Al-Qaeda – will become a potential threat to the government. The Kurds will move incrementally closer to full autonomy.


•   Iran will continue to haunt the Bush administration -- but following the surprise National Intelligence Estimate in early December, the chances of a US military strike have receded. Efforts to influence Iranian behaviour through a mixture of pressure and diplomacy will continue, but with little success. Iran will continue to throw its weight around as a regional power. However, parliamentary elections in March are likely to weaken President Ahmadi-Nejad and his supporters, and could benefit pragmatists allied to former President Rafsanjani.


•   There will be a faltering Israeli-Palestinian peace process in 2008, but there will not be a Palestinian state by the end of the year (the target date the parties have set themselves). Both Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will be lucky to remain in power by year’s end. In any case neither is strong enough to make the concessions needed for a peace agreement. Hamas will remain a thorn in their side, and the problem of ‘What to do about Gaza?’ will remain unresolved.

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