The killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is a propaganda success for the Americans and for the new Iraqi government. It allows President Bush to claim a notable victory in the global war on terror, and it gives the Iraqi government a morale boost at an opportune moment as it seeks to establish its authority. Propaganda is an important tool for the global jihadi movement, which maximises the impact of its words and deeds by transmitting them, via the internet, to a global audience. So the impact of Zarqawi’s demise will not be negligible.
Nevertheless it would be premature to see his elimination as the beginning of the end of the insurgency in Iraq. That insurgency is now very diverse, comprising a great variety of groups and agendas –- including foreign Islamists, Iraqi nationalists, ex-Baathists and criminal gangs. The jihadi element of the insurgency has lost its best-known face and may not find it easy to replace Zarqawi with a figure of similar stature. But the flood of new recruits coming to Iraq from neighbouring Muslim countries –- and even from Europe –- is not likely to dry up. Other Zarqawis may emerge, equally committed to eliminating the foreign presence in Iraq and stirring up sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shia.
The demise of Zarqawi may, however, prove to be good news for the more nationalist elements within the insurgency. Sunni Arab nationalists believe their purpose is to fight an unwanted military occupation –- not to kill Iraqi and foreign civilians as Zarqawi’s group has done. Many nationalists feel the insurgency has been tarnished by Zarqawi’s brutal methods, in particular the videotaped beheadings of foreign hostages.
For the Americans and the new Iraqi government, this represents an opportunity. Prime Minister Maliki has already said he will use force against the “terrorists” （meaning the radical Islamists） -- while offering reconciliation and dialogue to the more moderate elements of the insurgency. The Sunni Arabs now have a chance –- if they are ready to take it –- to dissociate themselves from extreme violence and take the path of political dialogue.
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