In a situation of greater calm, Sistani's influence would increase. He is the most important Shi'ite religious figure because of his theological stature -- which is far greater than Sadr's. However, the far-from-calm situation we have now -- and are likely to have in the near to medium term -- favours Sadr and other more radical clerics. Whereas Sistani tries to hold back the tide of violence and sectarianism, Sadr seeks to ride it -- to surf the wave -- and so increase his political power.
Sadr has consistently played a double game. He uses his militia, the Mahdi Army, to stir up trouble -- either against the US forces, as he has in the past, or, as he has more recently, in sectarian attacks against Sunnis and Sunni mosques. Then he intervenes to act as peacemaker, condemns sectarianism -- and seeks to play the role of a leader putting national interests before personal or communal interests. It is a cynical game, but it has served him well.
One other point about Sadr. The feud between his movement and SCIRI (the Supreme Council under Hakim"seems bound to cause further trouble in the future. It is essentially a straightforward power struggle -- whose prize is domination of the Iraqi Shia and hence a dominant role in Iraq as a whole. Sadr presents himself very much as an Iraqi Shia (a "son of the soil") -- depicting SCIRI (and even on occasion, Sistani) as having an Iranian character and an Iranian loyalty. One particular difference between Sadr and SCIRI is over federalism -- SCIRI is for, Sadr is against. Once there is a new government and a functioning parliament (for which it seems we must wait several more weeks), the difficult and emotive issue of federalism will raise its head once again.
What will happen when Sistani eventually passes from the scene? He may prove irreplaceable. He has not simply sought to reduce the danger of escalating violence and the risk of civil war. He is the main architect, behind the scenes, of the Shi'ite bloc (bringing together SCIRI, the Sadrists, Dawa and smaller Shi'ite groups). In theological terms, one of the other senior ayatollahs in Najaf would no doubt take over his role as senior cleric. But in political terms, his departure would leave a serious vacuum.
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