The air strikes in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Western Pakistan in mid-January that apparently killed several senior al Qaeda leaders while missing Ayman Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s number two, underscored several important and interesting realities. First, the use of unmanned Predator aircraft firing Hellfire missiles has proved effective tactical means of targeting terrorists. The huge political problems however in attacking foreign nationals in a friendly country cannot be dismissed even if the 18 people killed were all terrorists. Resolving the dilemma of damaging Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf administration to the benefit of removing committed enemies will always have costs that must be borne.
Yet there is another possibility that could become a reality. How significant a threat is al Qaeda and have the costs of hunting down and eliminating it outweighed the benefits? And if al Qaeda turns out to be a lesser evil, what are the larger dangers?
The case can be made that al Qaeda has been worn down to the point where it has become more of a model to be emulated than a real threat and a legend rather than a serious movement out to change the world. Nothing has been heard from Osama bin Laden for over a year, outside a just released recording that played on al Jazeera television. While Zawahiri is a frequent spokesman, it may be a matter of time before he too will be eliminated. And in Iraq, al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zakari, still dangerous and lethal, may have alienated his Sunni brethren in waging unlimited Jihad against the Shia including wholesale murder and violence.
Make no mistake. Al Qaeda is potentially murderous on a grand scale. That it is on the run does not dampen its ambitions to use terror and violence for political purposes. However, even if al Qaeda is neutralized or eliminated, will that end President Bush’s global war on terror and make the world much safer? The answer is probably not. There are several reasons for this hypothesis.
First, two largely unnoticed revolutions are sweeping through the Arab and Islamic worlds. Both pit old against new and those who propound change and those who oppose it. In the Arab world, and Egypt and Saudi Arabia are the most vivid examples, the old regimes are determined to maintain power against the growing popular political forces demanding greater access and say over governing. However, the ballot box has not provided the necessary solution or outlet in Egypt or in Saudi Arabia where voting is still in its incumbency.
Within the Islamic world, there is the clash between fundamentalists and modernists. The former sees strict adherence to the religion as crucial and the latter believe that reformation and openness are essential. Shia Iran is the best example demonstrating the clash of these two revolutions irrespective of the radicalism expressed by the Sunni Osama.
Al Qaeda is thus a catalyst demonstrating that superpowers are far from invulnerable and a model for emulation in terms of tactics. It is from this perspective that al Qaeda may present the larger danger. This is particularly true in South Asia.
It is impossible to know how much taking the fight to Osama has cost the West in money, influence and opportunities lost. There is no doubt however that these two broader revolutions remain relatively invisible certainly in terms of the policies that the major powers especially the United States has pursued. In the case of the political revolutions, the United States has chosen persuasion and dialogue but has not necessarily faced up to the challenge. In the case of the Islamic revolution, the United States has not done well in the battle over public diplomacy and in assisting the modernists and reformists from defeating the radicals. Worse, by fixating on al Qaeda, the other more profound revolutions have been kept relatively obscure.
Similarly, Iraq has diverted attention. In that case, the United States has had little option once making the choice to intervene. However, if the hypothesis that al Qaeda is not the prime concern proves correct, then these dual revolutions have the larger possibility of spinning out of control and over time becoming the dominant forces affecting the future of the Arab and Muslim worlds.
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