Two deaths have dominated the news and consigned many significant events to the back pages of newspapers and magazines and the last slot of nightly television news programs. The first was the tragic story of Mrs. Terri Schiavo. The second was the death of Pope John Paul II. Since many Japanese were not following the Schiavo case even though it was headline news in the United States, she had been in a “vegetative” or comatose state for fifteen years, kept alive by a feeding tube in a nursing home in the state of Florida. Her husband had petitioned the local Florida courts for permission to have the tube removed allowing his wife to die on the grounds that her wishes were not to continue life in such a diminished capacity.
Her parents fought desperately to keep her alive believing or praying that some day she would recover even though the chances of that occurring were more than remote. Two Florida courts agreed with the husband and ordered the tube removed. In March, the U.S. Congress took up the case and voted over a weekend to ask the presiding judge to reconsider. President George W. Bush cut short a stay at his Texas ranch to return to Washington to sign the bill into law in the early morning hours of that Monday following the vote. The Florida judge refused to be cowed; the Florida Appeals Court concurred and the U.S. Supreme Court refused to hear the case. Ms. Schiavo died of starvation. Ironically, had she been given a painless and merciful lethal injection to end any suffering, that would have been an act of murder and the attending medical person convicted of manslaughter. Too many, starvation was a more brutal and less civilized way of inducing death.
The death of the 84 year old leader of approximately one billion Catholics then dominated the news as did the funeral and subsequent convening of the College of Cardinals in Rome to elect a new pope. As a result of these two deaths, virtually all other news was on hold. Yet, what was happening in the greater Middle East was of profound importance. Events in Lebanon with promised Syrian withdrawal by April 30th; Israel’s decision to withdraw from Gaza in favor of keeping settlements in the West Bank; the struggle within Iraq’s newly elected national Assembly to select a government; and Iranian intentions regarding its nuclear programs all disappeared from public view. They did not however disappear from the significance each has for the region and for the future prospects for peace.
In Lebanon, the so-called “cedar revolution,” named for the nation’s national tree, catalyzed by the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, has led to Syria’s promise to remove some 14,000 troops that had been stationed there since 1976. That withdrawal had been demanded for some time by the Bush administration in its efforts to spread democracy and freedom throughout the region as well as by UN Resolution. However, much of the history has been conveniently overlooked or ignored that led to Syria’s intervention in the first place.
In 1976, Lebanon’s civil war threatened its Maronnite Christian population. With the urging of the United States, Arab and Muslim Syria under the first President Assad, sent its forces in to protect the Christians. No doubt the civil war would have been far worse had Syrian troops not been present. And Syria also wanted that presence to pressure Israel to return the Golan Heights that had been taken from Syria in the 1967 Arab-Israeli War.
Now under great external pressure and suspected of playing a role in Hariri’s murder, the second President Assad has acquiesced and promised to withdraw. Clearly, Assad sees the United States as willing to use force against Syria and unlike Iraq’s Saddam Hussein wishes to give no excuse for operations against him and his country that could depose his regime. However, as Syria withdraws, there is no countervailing force to prevent civil war or violence from erupting among Lebanon’s various religious, tribal and ethnic factions as it did thirty years ago. Hence, Lebanon is very much a powder keg.
In next door Israel, Prime Minister Sharon has convinced the Knesset to approve the withdrawal of Israeli settlements from Gaza. Gaza is a horrible place to live for the resident Arabs and Palestinians. Nearly eighty percent of its residents live at or below the poverty line and some 300,000 live in squalor. Economic development and rebuilding are essential. However, only token funding from Arab and Western sources, concluding the United States, has been granted. As a result, Gaza will continue to be a recruiting ground for terrorists and the Israelis hope is that by removing its citizens behind the wall it is building to isolate Palestine, violence will be reduced. And the intent is move more Israelis into the West Bank making any return to Jordan difficult if not possible. These are not promising signs for peace.
In Iraq, the National Assembly may have picked a leader of Parliament. It still must select a president, two deputies, a prime minister and a cabinet. Then it must draft a constitution by August 15th. There is no way that schedule can be met. In the interim, the insurgency continues focused on disrupting and intimidating the new government and continuing to cut electrical power and oil pipelines making recovery more difficult. But with fewer attacks on Americans and fewer U.S. servicemen killed in action, Iraq has drifted into the back pages of the newspapers.
Last, is Iran. The United States seems to have put Iran and its nuclear ambitions on hold allowing the Europeans to do the negotiating. Iran’s government has taken tough rhetorical stands against American aggression. Should Iran decide to go ahead with a nuclear option and build a weapon, the outside world would realistically have as the only option isolating Iran further by an embargo. However with oil close to $60 a barrel, should Iran decide to have an embargo of its own, the economic consequences for the oil dependent West and Asia could be painful.
The point here is that out of sight should not mean out of mind. Events drive the media as they drive politics. However, simply because there may not be any reporting of a fire or of fires does not mean that there are none. Be warned.
JIME Center.All rights reserved.