After many months of stagnation and violence, there is at last palpable movement towards reviving the Middle East peace process. The question is whether real progress will be made towards real peace.
What has brought about the change? A combination of four things.
As a result of these factors, there is a distinct change of mood.
However, the three key players – the Israelis, the Palestinians and the Americans – all need to build on this new sense of hope in concrete ways if genuine progress is to be made.
Ariel Sharon’s attention is narrowly focused on withdrawing Israeli troops and settlers from the Gaza Strip. This is tentatively scheduled to begin in the summer. In the run-up to the pullout he is waiting impatiently for Mahmoud Abbas to neutralize the militant groups (principally Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the armed wing of his own Fatah movement).
Ideally Mr Sharon wants these groups completely disarmed and their infrastructure of support completely dismantled. This is not going to happen. The most that can be expected is that the main groups will respect a temporary halt to operations. They may choose to call this a “lull” or a “pause” rather than a ceasefire.
Even so, it cannot be ruled out that individuals or cells will disregard any truce and carry out suicide attacks. If so, this will test Mr Sharon’s restraint and strengthen the arguments of Israeli hawks who oppose the pullout and believe the Palestinians cannot be trusted.
Mr Abbas’s tactic is to co-opt Hamas and other militant groups, not crush them. Significantly, Hamas has said it will take part in parliamentary elections in July. This is a mixed blessing for the Palestinian leader. On the one hand it indicates that Hamas may be preparing to transform itself from a movement committed to armed struggle into an essentially political movement – in other words, to make the kind of shift that its role model, Hizbullah, is contemplating in Lebanon. In the long run, this could result in Hamas moderating its opposition to both the peace process and Israel’s existence as a state.
In the short run, however, if Hamas does well in the July elections, which is likely, this will limit Mr Abbas’s freedom of manoeuvre. Hamas is already making stiff demands – the release of all 8,000 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all West Bank towns and cities, and the dismantling of the barrier the Israelis are building in the West Bank. Israel is ready to release some prisoners and withdraw from some towns, but regards the issue of the barrier as non-negotiable.
A crucial question is whether President Bush maintains his commitment to achieving a two-state solution. This will require cajoling (but also assisting) Mahmoud Abbas to stop the suicide attacks and helping him build up credibility as a leader. It will require pressure on the sensitive issue of Israeli settlement-building. The Middle East roadmap – to which all the parties pay lip service – requires a complete freeze in settlement activity. There is little sign Mr Sharon is ready for anything more than minor steps in that direction.
While on the Israeli-Palestinian track there is at least movement, none whatever can be discerned on the Israeli-Syrian track. The White House seems intent on cutting Syria down to size, while Mr Sharon stands applauding from the wings.
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