Bush and Syria

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 The killing of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri has deepened the crisis in US-Syrian relations.

 The Bush administration, embarking on its second term, had already shown signs of putting stronger pressure on both Syria and Iran – “rogue states” now among the principal targets of Washington’s displeasure.

 Before the assassination of Mr Hariri, US officials had three main complaints against Syria:

•  over its assistance, through various means, to the insurgency in Iraq,
•  over its support for the Lebanese group Hizbullah, which Washington regards as a terrorist organisation,
•  and over its continuing occupation of Lebanon.

 There are other issues – Syria’s oppressive regime and its apparent development of WMD (weapons of mass destruction) – but Iraq, Hizbullah and Lebanon are the main bones of contention. And of these, it is Syria’s stoking of the fire in Iraq which irks the Americans most.

 US officials are convinced that senior members of the former Saddam Hussein regime have taken refuge in Syria, with large amounts of money, and are using Syrian territory as a base from which to keep the insurgency going in Iraq.

 Syria’s recent attempts to tighten control of its border with Iraq are considered half-hearted.

 But even if it is events in Iraq which concern the Bush administration most, developments in Lebanon – long a mere appendage of Syrian power and influence – have given the Americans a pretext for tightening the screws on Damascus.

In his father’s shadow

 The Bashar al-Assad regime is, in large measure, the author of its own misfortune. The current crisis is a direct result of its clumsy efforts last year to prolong the tenure of the Lebanese president, Emile Lahoud – widely derided in Lebanon as a pro-Syrian stooge.

 These efforts were successful, but at a high price. Lahoud stayed on, but Syria’s interference provoked Mr Hariri to resign – and created great resentment among the Lebanese political elite. Syria and its remaining Lebanese allies may well have feared that Mr Hariri was becoming the focus of a growing campaign of opposition to Syria’s continued military presence in Lebanon.

 Who killed Rafiq Hariri remains unclear. But a strong suspicion remains that Syria was involved in one way or another. For Bashar al-Assad – a mere shadow of his iron-willed father Hafiz, often described as the “Bismarck of the Middle East” – the results are little short of catastrophic.

• Syria has gone a long way towards alienating not only America but Europe, including France – which it has sought to cultivate as a counterweight to the US.
• However dangerous to Syria Mr Hariri may have seemed while alive, he is far more dangerous now that he’s dead. Lebanon seethes with anti-Syrian anger and may become far harder for Syria to manage.
• Finally, the affair strengthens the impression that Washington’s relations with both Damascus and Tehran are moving inexorably towards some kind of confrontation.