The November U.S. presidential election is now part of history. Whether it understands what lies ahead or not, in fact, the Bush administration faces an array of crises and challenges in many ways far more daunting than four years ago. There may not be an event with the impact of September 11th and the attacks that collapsed New York’s Twin Trade Towers and part of the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. And not everyone across the globe agrees with the American assessment that those attacks “changed everything.” Indeed, the global war on terror has a distinctly “made in USA” label that is not attracting the support it once did.
Consider various “hot spots” around the world, many of which are far more dangerous than four years ago. The nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran still loom and in the latter case, rumors floating around the Pentagon do not preclude the use of military force to prevent Tehran from becoming a nuclear power. With Yasser Arafat’s death, there is no clear successor to lead the Palestinian nation. With that uncertainty and the other volatile issues endemic to the Middle East, peace and an end to violence seem further away. Iraq, despite the Bush administration’s brave face, is inevitably at the brink of some disaster or other. The election scheduled for January 30th, 2005 may or may not be held. If it is, the Shia majority will win and the reaction of the Sunni minority at best is unpredictable. If the election is delayed as various Iraqi political parties are urging for reasons ranging from an absence of security to snow blocked roads in northern Kurdistan that time of year, the Bush timetable goes out the window. And there is no alternative in place.
The Taiwan Straits are a flash point. Taipei seems bent on a path towards greater independence from Beijing, and China promises that it will use any measure to prevent that from happening. And, the contested election in Ukraine that has sparked intense international criticism has the potential for bringing back Cold War rivalries if Kiev chooses to move back into Moscow’s orbit and even civil war if the peaceful protests and commitment to non-violence by both candidates turn ugly. The one bright spot appears to be a rapprochement between India and Pakistan. However, the conflict over Kashmir is far from settled.
From the Bridge of the U.S. Ship of State: As 2004 draws to a close, like the majestic and once presumed “unsinkable” ocean liner Titanic, lost on its maiden voyage in 1912 in the North Atlantic with huge loss of life after hitting an iceberg, the Bush administration is sailing into its second term with an aura of invincibility. Winning a record number of votes, a three and a half million electoral majority, 55 seats in the Senate and gains in the House and governorships, President George Bush and the Republican Party believe they have a public mandate for the new term. The shuffling of cabinet posts, principally Dr. Condoleezza Rice as Colin Powell’s replacement at the State Department and Alberto Gonzalez to Justice, has generated the buzz that the president is extending his grip from the White House across all of government. As Republicans look to the future, there are grounds for some euphoria.
But euphoria is a tenuous condition especially when political icebergs are floating all around the ship of state. That only small portions of each are visible conceals the extent and reality of the lurking dangers. Within the United States, consider some of these dangerous realities.
The first looming crisis is, as President Bill Clinton constantly reminded Americans, “the economy stupid.” With combined annual budget and balance of trade deficits approaching one trillion dollars, a weak dollar that will discourage exports to the United States thereby slowing down economic growth in Asia and Europe dependent on U.S. markets and the suggestion of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that interest rates will rise, Bush’s fiscal and monetary policies must either work soon or change. Last month, at the APEC summit in Santiago, Chile, Bush promised to cut America’s budget deficit in half by 2009. But there has been no appetite on the part of either the White House or Congress to contain spending. The tax cuts have not yet made good on the promise of stimulating the economy to generate the greater tax revenues needed to close the growing budget gaps. So how the Bush administration and Congress will cut the fiscal deficit and strengthen the dollar while promoting global economic growth is unclear.
Problems at the Pentagon: Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld most likely will stay for some time in his post. The war and now the peace in Iraq are the wolves closest to his sled that must be slain or incapacitated. That is a full time job. Unofficial reports from Iraq on how the battle against that insurgency is going are not good. Those reports may be wrong. However, Rumsfeld has much to worry about in what little spare time he may have.
The Total or All Volunteer Force on which the nation’s military is based has been broken by September 11th and the extended occupation in Iraq. That structure, with the lessons of Vietnam and the Army’s commitment never to fight a war again absent full public support, purposely placed huge slices of so-called combat and combat service support elements in the National Guard and Reserve components and not the active duty force. Logistics, civil affairs, military police and other essential non-combat units fall into this category without which the Army cannot conduct very long-term combat operations.
Many of these reserve units are on active duty for extended service. This strain cannot continue forever. What will replace the All Volunteer Force or at least relieve the stress on the Guard and Reserve components has not been defined. This will be one of Rumsfeld’s most critical and difficult tasks at the same time he wages the wars in Iraq and against global terror, completes the “transformation” of the Defense Department for the 21st century and does all of that at a time when Congress is unlikely to stay as generous in what it appropriates for defense spending
CIA Problems: At the CIA, the new director Porter Goss has his hands full. The agency is in disarray. The resignations of the former deputy director and two of the most senior officers in the clandestine service are symptoms of an organization that is in sore need of a major makeover. Despondent over what many CIA professionals saw as undue politicization of intelligence by the Bush administration and, in turn, viewed by many Republicans as deeply partisan and disloyal, the CIA requires not only “tough love” but skillful leadership and management to correct its ills while providing useful and relevant intelligence. James Bond or his boss “M” would be hard pressed to do that job even in the movies.
State Department Woes: Condoleezza Rice meanwhile is swimming in the turbulent waters of Foggy Bottom. Following arguably the most popular figure in America who was revered and idolized by the State Department, Rice comes with the baggage of being seen as one of State’s principal adversaries in the White House and Defense Department. Blood is often bad between State, the White House and Defense. In the first term, the mutual animosity and disrespect were, as former British Ambassador to Washington Sir Christopher Mayer observed, so thick they could have been cut with a knife. Rice will have to overcome that suspicion and hostility as a first step.
She will also find that working at State means she will have to carry out policies with which she may disagree or may not have had any role in formulating unlike the days when she was steps away from the Oval Office. She will be accountable to Congress, assuming she is confirmed, one of the few things that National Security Advisors do not have to worry about. And as the nation’s chief diplomat not only will she need to impress her colleagues. Much of her diplomacy will occur in parts of the world that are unfriendly to women of either high or low rank.
On top of that, the “hot spots” are more dangerous than four years ago. North Korea, Taiwan, Iran, the Indian sub-continent and the Middle East could explode. Iraq, despite a brave administration face, is inevitably at the brink of some disaster or other. So, sail on ship of state. But please keep a good look out for icebergs and other things that go bump in the night.
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