Hopes for serious political reform in Egypt were dashed by the ruling partys annual congress in September. Delegates left the three-day event convinced the countrys 76-year-old president, Husni Mubarak, will seek another term (his fifth) when his present one runs out next year.
In his 23 years in power, Mubarak has always refused to appoint a vice-president. This has left the succession question hanging awkwardly in the air. Until recently the issue was taboo. Now everyone talks about it. Last November the president collapsed while addressing parliament, only to reappear fifty minutes later; his officials said he was suffering from flu. He spent part of this summer in a German clinic; that was said to be back trouble. Each event prompted a frenzy of concern and debate in the slavishly sycophantic Egyptian media.
Whats recently fuelled speculation about the succession has been the rising star of the presidents 41-year-old son, Gamal. A former investment banker in London, Gamal was appointed two years ago to head the policy-making committee of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). Gamal champions Egypts transition to a free-market economy. A cabinet reshuffle in July brought in several of his young reformist allies. The new team has moved to reform the banking system, cut tariffs and reorganise the customs system, and activate the stalled privatisation programme.
Gamal Mubaraks role as advocate of the market economy is clear. But is he also being groomed for the presidency? His mother, the half-Welsh Suzanne, is said to be promoting him. He has even had advice from Peter Mandelson (Tony Blairs former spin-doctor). Yet he and his father stolidly deny hes the heir apparent, and they probably mean it. There are several obstacles:
Who would the military prefer? The defence minister, Field Marshal Muhammad al-Tantawi, is 70 and in poor health. The name most often mentioned is that of General Omar Suleiman, the intelligence chief. Until a few years ago the 68-year-old general was all but invisible, but of late his profile has risen sharply. The president relies on him as a trusted troubleshooter especially in the Israeli-Palestinian arena. The Americans and the Israelis respect him.
For now the succession is uncertain and political reform is in the doldrums.
Among Egypts weak and divided opposition parties, reformers of differing hues (nationalists, leftists, Islamists) are calling for constitutional reform. That means three things: scrapping the referendum system so that the president can be directly elected by popular vote; abolishing emergency laws, in force since 1981, which allow indefinite detention without trial; and easing restrictions on forming new political parties.
At the NDP congress there was slight movement on the third of these issues, but none at all on the first two.
The cautious Husni Mubarak is unwilling to be hurried. Like other Middle Eastern autocrats, he believes America is so bogged down in Iraq it wont follow through on its calls for democratising the broader Middle East. His candidacy for another six-year term (in theory taking him to the ripe old age of 83) will be put to a referendum next year, and is certain to be approved. The emergency laws will be retained, ostensibly because Egypt still faces a threat from terrorism; in fact the violent Islamist groups were crushed, brutally, in the 1990s Islamism is now a political threat, not a security one .
While the leadership pays lip-service to the idea of political reform, the reality is political stagnation.
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